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MENTAL MODEL · M11465

Policy Iteration

Policy Iteration
DecidemediumDecision Science
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Updated 2026-08-13

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INTRODUCTION

English translation pending.

CORE DEFINITION

Strategy iteration treats a strategy as a continuously revised hypothesis rather than a fixed plan. Its core proposition is that an initial strategy is necessarily imperfect because it is formed under incomplete information, so the decisive capability is a reliable loop of executing, measuring, and adjusting rather than the brilliance of the first plan. The key qualification is direction: iteration improves a strategy only when each cycle is measured against a stable objective, otherwise repeated adjustment becomes undirected churn. The idea connects to build-measure-learn practice in lean startup work and to the observe-orient-decide-act loop.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

- Cycle design: define the loop length and the metric that closes each cycle. - Small bets: launch the smallest version that yields usable feedback and a measurable signal. - Revision rule: decide in advance what evidence would trigger a change of course.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

Plans formed without feedback encode assumptions that may be wrong, and those errors compound over time. Short cycles convert assumptions into testable predictions and return evidence quickly, so corrections arrive while they are still cheap. Each revision narrows the gap between the plan and reality, which is what makes a modest starting strategy competitive.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

  • link
    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markov_decision_processZH · Explicit
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