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MENTAL MODEL · M10517

Granger Causality Test

Granger Causality Test
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

Predictive: If past values of X help predict Y, then X "Granger-causes" Y. Temporal precedence: Causes must precede effects in time. Incremental prediction: Adding X significantly reduces prediction error.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

Use time series to infer causal direction. Not causality in a philosophical sense, but "predictive causality"—yet in many contexts it is a useful tool for causal inference. Related variants: Granger test, Granger causality.

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If using past values of X significantly improves the prediction of Y, then X is said to Granger-cause Y; it tests predictive precedence rather than mechanistic causality. Precedence and predictive usefulness constitute Granger causality.

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Granger_causalityZH · Explicit
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