Wheel of the Future
Updated 2026-09-11
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
A structured brainstorming tool. Place one change, such as the spread of AI, at the center; the first ring holds its direct, first-order consequences; the second ring holds the consequences of those first-order ones; and so on, forming a ripple-shaped causal map. It works as a butterfly-effect probe: never settle for the first-order benefit, and push the analysis out to the third ring, where disasters like the cobra effect tend to hide.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Map the ripple: draw first-order, second-order, and third-order consequences around the change. - Push past the obvious: refuse to stop at the attractive first-order benefit. - Hunt the third ring: search the outer rings for hidden disaster or opportunity.
Anchor fast decisions
As a futures-study tool, the wheel places a trigger change at the center and draws its direct and increasingly indirect consequences as concentric rings, revealing the diffusion structure of impact. The mechanism is consequence rippling: each ring is caused by the ring inside it.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
account_treeGenealogyexpand_more
menu_bookReferencesexpand_more
Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_wheelverified
PRIVATE NOTES · Only visible to you
SAVED Q&A
ENTRY Q&A · Private saving available
Ask with a clear boundary
thinkingmodels answers from published entry context only.
Your question is sent to thinkingmodels. The answer uses public entry context only.
RELATED MODELS