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MENTAL MODEL · M10146

Regression Discontinuity Design, RDD

Regression Discontinuity Design, RDD
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Updated 2026-08-13

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INTRODUCTION

English translation pending.

CORE DEFINITION

A quasi-experimental method used when a treatment is assigned by a score threshold, such as a 60-point pass mark. It compares the outcomes of units that fall just barely on either side of the cutoff. Near the threshold the two groups are essentially similar, separated only by a single point of fate, which makes the comparison nearly random and isolates a local causal effect without any random assignment.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

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- Substitute for randomization: when groups cannot be assigned at random, the threshold yields a near-random comparison at the cutoff - Local causal estimate: it recovers the treatment effect specifically for units sitting close to the threshold - Testable assumptions: the no-manipulation condition around the cutoff can be checked directly

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Treatment is assigned by a threshold on a continuous running variable. Units just above and below it are nearly identical in every expectation except the one-point difference in that variable, so the jump in their observed outcomes at the cutoff approximates the local causal effect of the policy, replacing randomization with a natural boundary.

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_discontinuity_designZH · Explicit
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