Cognitive Scaffold

Preparing your thinking workspace

arrow_back_ios_new
MENTAL MODEL · M8588

Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc
TechnicalHigh supportResearch Methods
Included
account_tree

Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

Merely because B occurred after A, one concludes that A caused B. This is a root of superstition and pseudoscience (e.g., "I danced, so it rained").

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

Coincidence filter. Temporal sequence does not equal causation. One must seek mechanistic evidence (Mechanism), not just correlation in time series.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

This is a typical causal fallacy: inferring that A causes B solely based on temporal order (A precedes B). The human brain is naturally biased to find causality in sequences, but correlation is not causation; precedence is a necessary but not sufficient condition for causation.

MINIMUM ACTION

In progress 0/4

Practice this model in one real situation:

Check to track your progress (stored locally)
Learning progress0%
account_treeGenealogyexpand_more
menu_bookReferencesexpand_more

Source support: Explicit

  • link
    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hocZH · Explicit
    verified

RELATED MODELS

Related model

The Anna Karenina Principle

For tasks requiring several necessary conditions jointly, failure of any one may prevent success; this does not make all successful cases identical.

arrow_forwardRelated model

Streetlight Effect

The streetlight effect, or the drunkard's search principle, is a type of observational bias that occurs when people only search for something where it is easiest to look. Both names refer to a well-known joke: A policeman sees a drunk man searching for something under a streetlight and asks what th…

arrow_forwardRelated model

Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

The Texas sharpshooter fallacy is the statistical fallacy of inferring meaning from what is essentially a random distribution of data points. It is the philosophical or rhetorical application of the multiple comparisons problem (also known as data dredging or p-hacking in statistics) and apophenia (in cognitive psychology). It is related to the clustering illusion, which is the tendency in human cognition to see patterns in random data.

arrow_forward