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MENTAL MODEL · M8522

Regression to the Mean

Regression to the Mean
Learn & MetacognitionHigh supportCognitive Psychology
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

Extreme events (such as abnormal success) tend to be followed by values closer to the average, not due to causal intervention.

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In statistics, regression toward the mean (also called regression to the mean, reversion to the mean, and reversion to mediocrity) is the phenomenon where if one sample of a random variable is extreme, the next sampling of the same random variable is likely to be closer to its mean. Furthermore, whe…

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Regression to the mean refers to the phenomenon that after an extreme performance, the next observation tends to be closer to the average level, rather than continuing the extreme. It is often misinterpreted as "correction," but it is actually a natural result of random fluctuation, unrelated to causality.

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_meanZH · Explicit
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