Stopping Time Theory
Updated 2026-08-10
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
A branch of probability theory concerned with stopping rules. A stopping time is a decision point that can be determined from information observed up to that moment, without foresight of the future. The core proposition is that for many sequential problems an optimal stopping boundary exists, beyond which continued observation costs more in foregone value than it can recover. The key qualification is that the rule must be non-anticipating to be implementable.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Rule specification: define in advance which observation will trigger acceptance. - Threshold setting: derive the point where continuing to search costs more than deciding. - Discipline check: execute the threshold when reached instead of waiting one more round.
Anchor fast decisions
Each additional observation trades a certain cost, such as time or foregone options, against the chance of finding something better. Early on, the option value of continuing is high because little is known; as the search proceeds, the remaining candidate pool shrinks and the cost of delay grows. The optimum sits where the marginal value of one more observation equals its marginal cost.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stopping_timeverified
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