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MENTAL MODEL · M7358

Human Reliability Analysis, HRA

Human Reliability Analysis, HRA
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Updated 2026-08-10

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INTRODUCTION

English translation pending.

CORE DEFINITION

Human Reliability Analysis, developed in the nuclear and aviation industries from the 1960s onward, systematically estimates the probability and consequences of human error within a defined task and context. Its core proposition is that fallible operators are a normal component of any system, so safety must be designed around expected error rather than assumed perfect performance. The key qualifier is context dependence: error rates depend on workload, interface, time pressure, and experience, so a single number applied everywhere misleads.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

- Task decomposition: break the operation into steps and mark the places where error is likely. - Error mode check: distinguish simple slips of execution from the deeper mistakes of intention behind them. - Barrier design: add constraints, checklists, or forcing functions wherever the consequences would be severe.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

Humans fail in patterned ways rather than randomly: routine steps get skipped under load, and wrong mental models produce confident wrong actions. Because the patterns are predictable from task and context, they can be anticipated and blocked. Designing barriers at the points where error is both likely and consequential reduces risk far more than exhorting people to be careful.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_reliabilityZH · Explicit
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