Expert Judgment Method
Updated 2026-08-09
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
A decision method that uses domain experts' subjective judgment to assess uncertain matters qualitatively or quantitatively, applied where historical data is unavailable. Its core proposition is that expert judgment is the best available anchor in data-scarce domains, but that unstructured subjective rating drifts, so reliability comes from defined scales, trained raters, and multiple independent assessments. The qualifier is that the output carries the uncertainty of judgment and must be reported with its reliability.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Scale definition: specify the dimensions and the meaning of each point on the rating scale. - Rater alignment: train the assessors so they apply the same standard to the same evidence. - Reliability reporting: average several independent ratings and report how far they agreed.
Anchor fast decisions
Where no objective measure exists, judgment is the only available instrument, but an unstructured judgment varies with the assessor's mood and framing. Fixing the scale and aligning raters removes part of that variance, and averaging several independent ratings cancels the remainder, so the aggregate is more stable than any single rating.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- wiki.mbalib.comhttps://wiki.mbalib.com/wiki/%E4%B8%93%E5%AE%B6%E8%AF%84%E5%AE%9A%E6%B3%95verified
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