Ten Thousand Arrows Fired
Updated 2026-08-22
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
A military image of volleys loosed from many directions simultaneously, used as a model for parallel and redundant action. Its core proposition is that when an outcome depends on one uncertain bet, running several independent attempts at once raises the probability that one succeeds and stretches the defender's attention beyond capacity. The qualifier is that the arrows must be independently sufficient, since spreading across too many paths leaves each one too weak to break through.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Main axis choice: name the primary direction of attack before opening any secondary paths. - Parallel bets: run several independent channels or hypotheses at the same time and watch each. - Reinforcement shift: pour resources into whichever path shows the first real hit.
Anchor fast decisions
A single attempt fails whenever its particular assumption is wrong, and the probability of at least one success rises quickly as independent attempts are added. Meanwhile the defender must allocate attention across all of them, so coverage per point falls. Redundancy converts uncertainty about which path works into a portfolio likely to contain one.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
account_treeGenealogyexpand_more
menu_bookReferencesexpand_more
Source support: Explicit
- zh.wikipedia.orghttps://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B8%87%E7%AE%AD%E9%BD%90%E5%8F%91verified
PRIVATE NOTES · Only visible to you
SAVED Q&A
ENTRY Q&A · Private saving available
Ask with a clear boundary
thinkingmodels answers from published entry context only.
Your question is sent to thinkingmodels. The answer uses public entry context only.
RELATED MODELS