MENTAL MODEL · M6410

Publication Bias

DecideHigh supportDecision Science

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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

Statistically significant, positive research results (e.g., new drug efficacy) are more likely to be published, while non-significant or negative results are "locked in the drawer." This leads to a systematic overestimation of effects in the academic literature.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

Evidence quality assessment. When making decisions, one must ask: Has this conclusion been verified in multiple independent studies? Is there a possibility of selective publication?

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

Both journals and authors prefer significant, positive results; negative or null results are difficult to publish, creating a "file drawer effect." In meta-analyses, positive results are overrepresented, systematically overestimating the true effect size.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Practice this model in one real situation:

When conducting literature reviews, actively search for unpublished studies (preregistration repositories, conference abstracts, trial registries)
Use funnel plots and Egger's test to detect asymmetry
Use the fail-safe number to estimate how many null results would overturn the conclusion
Downgrade confidence in evidence when making decisions.

Check to track your progress (stored locally)

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Source support: Explicit

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en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Publication_biasZH · Explicit
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