MENTAL MODEL · M6399

Durability Bias

BehaviorHigh supportPsychology

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Updated 2026-08-08

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INTRODUCTION

English translation pending.

CORE DEFINITION

Durability bias is the tendency to overestimate the duration of emotional reactions to future events, both positive and negative. People expect a lottery win to produce lasting happiness and a serious loss to produce lasting misery, yet adaptation returns them toward their baseline far sooner than predicted. The bias is closely related to the broader impact bias and is corrected by reference to how quickly similar past events actually faded.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

- Shorten the forecast: reduce the duration you expect any emotional reaction to last. - Check the record: use how long similar past events affected you as the estimate. - Act on the corrected number: decide using the shortened duration rather than the felt one.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

Forecasts are built from the intensity of the imagined event, and intensity is used as a proxy for duration even though the two are unrelated. Because attention shifts and the psychological immune system absorbs the event, the actual effect decays quickly. The mismatch between using intensity as a stand-in for duration and the real decay curve produces the overestimate.

MINIMUM ACTION

In progress 0/1

Practice this model in one real situation:

When predicting how long a reaction will last, write down your estimate. 2. Reduce that estimate substantially before you use it in a decision. 3. Recall how long a comparable past event actually affected you. 4. Check what else will be occupying your attention by then. 5. Decide using the corrected duration rather than the felt one.

Check to track your progress (stored locally)

Learning progress0%

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Source support: Explicit

link
en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_biasZH · Explicit
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