Hindsight Bias
Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30
CORE DEFINITION
After an event occurs, we tend to believe that we had anticipated it all along ("I knew it all along"), underestimating the uncertainty at the time. This can lead us to overestimate our predictive abilities.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
A stumbling block for retrospective review. Hindsight bias can obscure the real errors in the decision-making process. To conduct an authentic review, one must record a 'decision log' (thoughts, rationale, and predictions at the time) at the moment of decision, and compare it afterwards, rather than relying on memory.
Anchor fast decisions
Hindsight bias refers to the tendency to perceive past outcomes as having been predictable, thereby overestimating one's predictive ability in hindsight.
MINIMUM ACTION
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Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_biasverified
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