Power Transition Theory
Updated 2026-08-05
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
Associated with A. F. K. Organski and later Jacek Kugler, power transition theory argues that the international system is most unstable during the transition in which a rising state approaches parity with the dominant state. The rising state is typically dissatisfied with the existing order, while the dominant state fears displacement, so the two conditions combine into the highest probability of large-scale war. The theory refines Thucydides' account of the Peloponnesian War into a testable proposition about parity plus dissatisfaction.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Watch the gap: track the rate at which a challenger is closing on the incumbent. - Read satisfaction: ask whether the challenger accepts the current rules of the game. - Manage the handover: treat succession periods as the highest-risk phase in any system.
Anchor fast decisions
A dominant state's order persists because it is satisfied with the rules it wrote and can enforce them. A rising state that approaches parity and rejects those rules has both the motive and the capability to challenge them, and the incumbent has reason to act before the gap closes. The combination of approaching parity and dissatisfaction, rather than parity alone, generates the elevated risk.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- zh.wikipedia.orghttps://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%AC%8A%E5%8A%9B%E8%BD%89%E7%A7%BB%E7%90%86%E8%AB%96verified
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