Projection Bias
Updated 2026-08-05
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
Projection bias is the tendency to predict future preferences, and to infer other people's preferences, by over-weighting one's current physiological or emotional state. Someone shopping while hungry buys too much food for the week ahead; someone planning a desert trip while cool assumes little water will be needed. It arises from the availability heuristic, since the present state is the most accessible input to judgment, and it affects both self-predictions and judgments about others.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Break the anchor: decide using a rule or checklist instead of your present feelings. - Shift the vantage: imagine the future situation concretely before committing to a choice. - Check the record: compare what you chose before against what you actually wanted later.
Anchor fast decisions
Judgment draws on the most accessible information, and one's current state is always accessible, so it dominates the forecast. Because the state is transient, the prediction it generates does not survive the change, and the choice looks wrong in hindsight. Rules, lists and explicit consideration of future conditions substitute stable inputs for the momentary state.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affective_forecastingverified
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