MENTAL MODEL · M6150

Newcomb's Paradox

DecideHigh supportDecision Science

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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-28

CORE DEFINITION

In philosophy and mathematics, Newcomb's problem, also known as Newcomb's paradox, is a thought experiment posing a decision problem in which a player must decide whether to choose one of two or both boxes under conditions in which a being, often called the "predictor", decides in advance what they contain, and is able to predict the player's choices with near-certainty.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

In philosophy and mathematics, Newcomb's problem, also known as Newcomb's paradox, is a thought experiment posing a decision problem in which a player must decide whether to choose one of two or both

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

A super predictor presents two boxes: a transparent box with $1,000 and an opaque box that may contain $1,000,000 or nothing. If the predictor predicts you will take only the opaque box, it contains $1,000,000; otherwise, it is empty. Causal decision theory (the money is already set, so taking both yields $1,000 plus either $0 or $1,000,000) and evidential decision theory (if you trust the predictor, take only the opaque box to get $1,000,000) give contradictory answers, exposing a crack in the definition of "rationality".

MINIMUM ACTION

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Practice this model in one real situation:

Clarify which decision theory you hold
if you trust the predictor's accuracy, take only the opaque box
if you believe in causal independence, take both
use the paradox to expose conflicts in your assumptions about "rationality"
in real-world games, consider whether your intentions may be anticipated.

Check to track your progress (stored locally)

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Source support: Explicit

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en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb%27s_problemZH · Explicit
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