Simulation Argument
Updated 2026-08-05
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
The simulation argument states that one of three propositions must hold: civilizations go extinct before reaching a posthuman stage, posthuman civilizations have no interest in simulating their ancestors, or we are almost certainly living in a simulation. The core claim is probabilistic: if simulation is possible, the number of simulated minds would vastly exceed the number of real ones, so the probability that we are simulated approaches one. The qualification is that the argument is a conditional about logical possibility, and denying any premise dissolves it entirely.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Probabilistic Doubt: If the world is a simulation, physical laws are code and miracles are cheat codes. - Radical Skepticism: The argument provides an extreme skeptical vantage point for questioning the value of absolute reality. - Premise Check: Because the conclusion follows only from the premises, attacking a premise is the way to resist it.
Anchor fast decisions
Bostrom's trilemma holds that either civilizations go extinct, or posthuman civilizations lack interest in simulations, or we almost certainly inhabit one. The inference rests on a probabilistic claim that simulated minds would vastly outnumber real ones.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simulation_hypothesisverified
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