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MENTAL MODEL · M5931

Kuznets Cycle

Kuznets Cycle
BusinessHigh supportEconomics
Included
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

A medium-long cycle of about 15-25 years, mainly driven by the rise and fall of construction and real estate. It is closely related to population migration and household formation rates.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

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Real estate fatalism. The boom and bust of real estate do not complete in just a few years; they often span a generation. During the downward phase of the Kuznets cycle, any short-term stimulus policies are unlikely to reverse the overall trend.

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Anchor fast decisions

The Kuznets cycle refers to medium-long term economic fluctuations of about 15–25 years, often associated with demographic changes, construction, and infrastructure investment cycles. It is longer than the Kitchin and Juglar cycles, but shorter than the Kondratiev long wave.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuznets_swingZH · Explicit
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