Gompertz-Makeham Law
Updated 2026-08-08
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
A mortality model combining two components. Benjamin Gompertz observed in that the force of mortality rises exponentially with age; William Makeham later added a constant term representing hazards independent of age, such as accidents or infection. Together they describe adult mortality well across many populations: the age-dependent term doubles roughly every eight years after about age thirty. The law is a population-level regularity used in actuarial pricing and reliability modeling, and it does not predict the lifespan of a particular individual.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Aging system read: expect failure probability in a long-lived codebase or organization to rise exponentially, not linearly. - Maintenance versus rebuild: recognize that patching only shifts the curve while regeneration resets it. - Risk pricing: apply the age-dependent term when estimating failure rates at different ages.
Anchor fast decisions
Damage accumulates through many small, largely independent mechanisms, so the probability that at least one has become critical compounds multiplicatively rather than additively. That is why the hazard rises exponentially with age instead of linearly. The constant Makeham term captures risks that do not care about age at all. For engineered systems, entropy and dependency accumulation play the same role that biological aging does.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz%E2%80%93Makeham_law_of_mortalityverified
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