Technology Foresight
Updated 2026-08-02
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
Technology foresight emerged from national science policy and corporate strategy practice in the late twentieth century, with programs such as the Japanese Delphi surveys establishing the method. It explores future technology trends, opportunities, and threats through weak-signal scanning, scenario construction, and expert consensus rather than forecasting a single outcome. The core claim is that the future cannot be predicted precisely but can be previewed well enough to prepare options. Key qualifications are that its value lies in continuous use and in the strategic choices it informs, not in one-off reports.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Scan for signals: watch weak indicators that could grow into major shifts later. - Build scenarios: write several plausible futures instead of betting on one forecast. - Set indicators: define early signals that tell you which scenario is unfolding.
Anchor fast decisions
Technology change is too uncertain for point forecasts, but the early signals that precede it are observable. Scanning for weak signals, building several scenarios, and collecting expert judgment convert that ambiguity into a set of decision options and early indicators. Because the organization has already considered several futures, it recognizes a shift when it begins and can commit resources before competitors do, which is what makes the method useful.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foresight_(futures_studiesverified
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