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MENTAL MODEL · M4842

Technology Adoption Lifecycle

Technology Adoption Lifecycle
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Updated 2026-08-02

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INTRODUCTION

English translation pending.

CORE DEFINITION

Described by Everett Rogers and extended by Geoffrey Moore in Crossing the Chasm, the technology adoption lifecycle divides adopters into innovators, early adopters, the early majority, the late majority, and laggards, with proportions of roughly two and a half, thirteen and a half, thirty-four, thirty-four, and sixteen percent. Diffusion follows an S-curve as adoption accelerates and then saturates. Moore argued that a gap separates vision-driven early adopters from the pragmatists in the early majority. Key qualification: the boundaries are analytical rather than exact.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

- Locate the stage: identify which adopter group currently buys your product today. - Change the pitch: shift from novelty to references as you approach the early majority. - Target the beachhead: win one pragmatist segment completely before broadening your efforts.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

Early adopters buy on the promise of advantage and tolerate immaturity, so their enthusiasm does not indicate mainstream demand. Pragmatists in the early majority buy only when peers have already validated the product, which means they need references rather than features. Because the two groups respond to different evidence, the strategies that won the first group fail with the second, and many products stall at that boundary.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_life_cycleZH · Explicit
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