Goodman's New Riddle of Induction
Updated 2026-08-08
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
Posed by Nelson Goodman in Fact, Fiction, and Forecast. Define grue as applying to things examined before a given future date if they are green, and to things not so examined if they are blue. Every observation supporting the claim that all emeralds are green equally supports the claim that all emeralds are grue, though the two predict different colors afterward. Evidence alone does not determine which generalization is justified.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Audit your predicates: check whether a feature you are modeling depends on time or context in a hidden way - Ask why this feature: justify the variable you included rather than the one you left out - Test projectibility: ask whether the pattern should be expected to hold beyond the observed period
Anchor fast decisions
Any finite set of observations is consistent with indefinitely many generalizations, since predicates can be constructed to fit the data while diverging later. Induction therefore requires a prior commitment to certain predicates as projectible, and that commitment is not itself derived from the evidence. The justification of induction depends on conceptual choices rather than on observation alone.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_riddle_of_inductionverified
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