Bet-Hedging
Updated 2026-08-08
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
An evolutionary strategy described in life-history theory. Organisms hedge by diversifying phenotypes or offspring types rather than optimizing for the most likely environment. A plant might produce both fast-germinating and long-dormant seeds, betting on good and bad conditions respectively. Hedging lowers average performance in any single generation but raises the geometric mean of growth across generations, protecting against catastrophic loss.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Read the environment: assess volatility before deciding whether to concentrate or diversify - Sacrifice the average: accept lower peak performance in exchange for surviving the worst case - Rebalance over time: hold diversification while conditions are unpredictable and concentrate once they stabilize
Anchor fast decisions
In a variable environment, long-run growth is governed by the geometric mean, which is dragged down by any period of near-total loss. A concentrated bet on the best strategy for the average year can be wiped out by one extreme year. Spreading bets lowers variance, so the geometric mean rises even though the arithmetic average falls.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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menu_bookReferencesexpand_more
Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bet_hedging_(biologyverified
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