The Bradley Effect
Updated 2026-08-02
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
Named after Tom Bradley, the Black mayor of Los Angeles who led in polls but lost the California governor's race. The effect describes the tendency of some voters to tell pollsters they support a minority candidate while voting otherwise, because admitting racial bias is socially costly. The result is a systematic overstatement of support in surveys. The size of the effect is debated and later research has questioned its reliability.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Discount the sensitive: apply a haircut to polls where the socially acceptable answer is obvious - Cross-check anonymously: verify with behavioral data such as purchases or actual votes - Design questions: use indirect or self-administered measures where the honest answer is embarrassing
Anchor fast decisions
Respondents want to present themselves favorably to an interviewer, and stating a prejudiced preference conflicts with that goal. The socially approved answer is therefore given in the interview even when it does not match private behavior. The gap appears only when the private act carries no social cost, which is why the discrepancy surfaces at the ballot box.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effectverified
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