Odlyzko's Law
Updated 2026-08-08
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
Attributed to mathematician Andrew Odlyzko, who questioned the widely cited Metcalfe's law. Metcalfe's law claims network value scales with the square of the number of users, but Odlyzko argued that most possible connections are never used because human attention is finite. Value therefore grows closer to n log n, a far slower rate. The correction matters for valuation, since it implies that adding users past a point yields diminishing rather than explosive returns.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Value a platform: use n log n rather than n squared when estimating growth in network worth - Predict saturation: expect engagement to flatten as noise from unused connections accumulates - Test density: measure how many of a user's possible connections are actually active
Anchor fast decisions
A network's theoretical connections grow quadratically, but a person can maintain only a limited number of real relationships. Each added user therefore brings a handful of usable links rather than one link to everyone already present. Because usable connections per person grow logarithmically with network size, aggregate value tracks n log n, which rises much more slowly than the square.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe%27s_lawverified
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