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MENTAL MODEL · M4043

Illusion of Control

Illusion of Control
Learn & MetacognitionHigh supportCognitive Psychology
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

People tend to overestimate their ability to control the outcome of events, even when the outcome is entirely determined by random factors. For example, gamblers may throw dice with force to get a 'desired' number, believing they can influence the random outcome.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

Identifying the scope of control. In risk management, investment decisions, and daily decision-making, distinguish between truly controllable factors and uncontrollable random factors. Help us focus on variables we can actually influence, avoiding irrational decisions due to the illusion of control.

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Anchor fast decisions

People still believe their actions can influence outcomes when outcomes are dominated by random/external factors, because the temporal proximity of 'action-outcome' is misread as causality. The sense of control is an evolutionary reward, but it can overreach into purely random domains (dice, markets).

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

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    zh.wikipedia.orghttps://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%8E%A7%E5%88%B6%E7%9A%84%E9%8C%AF%E8%A6%BAZH · Explicit
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