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MENTAL MODEL · M3930

Okun's Law

Okun's Law
BusinessHigh supportMacroeconomics
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

For every 1 percentage point that the unemployment rate exceeds the natural rate, real GDP will be about 2 percentage points below potential GDP (the ratio varies by country). It quantifies the empirical relationship between "employment" and "output", providing a practical tool for assessing the "output gap".

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

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Business cycle diagnosis. By observing changes in the unemployment rate, one can estimate the size of the "output gap" and determine whether the economy is "overheating" (positive gap) or "cooling" (negative gap). It serves as a bridge between the "labor market" and "aggregate demand management".

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Arthur Okun's empirical law: for every 1 percentage point that the unemployment rate exceeds the natural rate, real GDP is about 2% below potential GDP (the coefficient varies by country). The mechanism is that idle labor is positively correlated with the output gap.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Okun%27s_lawZH · Explicit
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