Ludic Fallacy
Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30
CORE DEFINITION
The erroneous simplification of complex real-world risks into models with clear rules and known probabilities, like casino games. That is, "treating life as if it were a game of dice."
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
The gap between models and reality. Financial models (such as VaR) fail in crises because they commit the ludic fallacy. Real-world risks are "black swans" whose probabilities and impacts are unknown and cannot be predicted by casino-like models.
Anchor fast decisions
Importing fixed game rules, outcomes and probability structures into open real-world situations can omit unknown factors and out-of-model events. This is not the green lumber fallacy or group stereotyping.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludic_fallacyverified
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