Cognitive Scaffold

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MENTAL MODEL · M3624

Experience Curve

Experience Curve
BusinessHigh supportEconomics
Included
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Updated 2026-07-31

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INTRODUCTION

English translation pending.

CORE DEFINITION

An extension of the learning curve, developed at Boston Consulting Group in the 1960s from earlier observations in aircraft and semiconductor manufacturing. Its core proposition is that real unit costs decline by a predictable percentage with each doubling of cumulative output, and that the decline comes not only from worker learning but from process technology, scale economies, product redesign, and purchasing. The key constraint is that the curve describes an aggregate tendency across all these sources, so a firm cannot capture it by attending to production alone, and a technological discontinuity can reset accumulated experience.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

- Cost position: estimate the slope of your curve to see how much cost advantage accumulated volume actually buys. - Source audit: check which of learning, scale, design, or purchasing is producing the decline before betting on it. - Entry timing: treat early volume share as a durable asset only while the underlying technology is stable.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

Cost declines because every repetition and every process revision removes some waste from the operation, and those savings accumulate rather than being consumed. Doubling cumulative volume therefore delivers a roughly constant proportional reduction, which means the firm with the largest accumulated output sits furthest down the curve and can price below what a newcomer can afford. Because the effect pools several sources, it is stronger and more durable than worker learning alone, and it becomes a barrier to entry once the leader converts it into price.

MINIMUM ACTION

In progress 0/1

Practice this model in one real situation:

Check to track your progress (stored locally)
Learning progress0%
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Source support: Explicit

  • link
    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effectZH · Explicit
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