MENTAL MODEL · M3187

Collingridge Dilemma

CultureHigh supportPhilosophy

Included

Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-31

CORE DEFINITION

A double constraint on technology control: 1. Information problem: when a technology (e.g., AI, plastics) is still in its early stages, it is easy to control or change, but difficult to predict its consequences. 2. Power problem: when the technology matures and consequences become apparent, although we see the harms clearly, the technology is deeply embedded in social structures, making it extremely difficult to change or control. -

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

The timing paradox of regulation and innovation. This explains why we are so conflicted when facing AI: regulating now may stifle innovation (because we cannot see clearly), and regulating later may be too late (because we cannot control it).

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

Another name for the same dilemma: the information problem (early on, consequences are unclear) and the power problem (later, it is hard to change) coexist, trapping technology control in a paradox of "too early to regulate now, too late to regulate later."

MINIMUM ACTION

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Practice this model in one real situation:

First, distinguish between "information insufficiency" and "power insufficiency" as two types of obstacles. Second, invest early in forward-looking assessment and scenario planning. Third, preserve reversible and substitutable paths for the technology. Fourth, design adaptive regulation that updates with evidence.

Check to track your progress (stored locally)

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Source support: Explicit

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en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collingridge_dilemmaZH · Explicit
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