Cognitive Scaffold

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MENTAL MODEL · M2565

Law of Accelerating Returns

Law of Accelerating Returns
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

The process of technological evolution is accelerating because each generation of more advanced technology is used to accelerate the development of the next generation. Not only is the speed increasing, but the 'acceleration' itself is increasing. -

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

Non-linear estimation of the future. - Human intuition is linear (thinking that the progress of the next 10 years will be similar to the last 10 years), but technological reality is exponential. This explains why we often feel that AI 'suddenly' exploded. When planning long-term strategies, one must consider the evolution speed of the tools themselves; what takes a year today might take only a minute in 5 years.

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Kurzweil proposes that the rate of technological progress itself is accelerating because new technologies (computing power, tools, knowledge) are used to create even newer technologies, forming a positive feedback loop that makes progress exponential or even double exponential. As a result, human linear intuition consistently underestimates the true future technological capability, creating the illusion of a 'sudden explosion'.

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerating_changeZH · Explicit
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