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MENTAL MODEL · M2159

Overconfidence Bias

Overconfidence Bias
Learn & MetacognitionHigh supportCognitive Psychology
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

A cognitive bias in which people systematically overestimate their own knowledge, abilities, and accuracy of judgment, particularly evident in decision-making and forecasting.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

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The systematic overestimation of one's own knowledge, abilities, and accuracy of judgment.

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Same as overconfidence—systematic overestimation of the accuracy of one's own judgment, stemming from cognitive biases and information illusions, common in finance and decision-making.

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effectZH · Explicit
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