Cognitive Scaffold

Preparing your thinking workspace

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MENTAL MODEL · M1817

Diversity Prediction Theorem

Diversity Prediction Theorem
TechnicalHigh supportMathematics
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-31

CORE DEFINITION

Collective error = average individual error - prediction diversity. That is, the wisdom of a group depends not only on how smart individuals are, but also on how different they are. Diversity is a mathematical lever for reducing error.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

- Team formation principle: If a team is composed entirely of elites from prestigious universities (small average error) but they all think alike (low diversity), the collective intelligence may be worse than that of a group of ordinary people with diverse backgrounds.

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Anchor fast decisions

Page's Diversity Prediction Theorem: A group of predictors with slightly less ability but diverse perspectives often outperforms a homogeneous group of experts. The mechanism is that cognitive diversity reduces collective error.

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowdZH · Explicit
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