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MENTAL MODEL · M1522

Sensitivity vs Specificity

Sensitivity vs Specificity
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

Sensitivity is the 'true positive rate' (probability that a diseased person is detected), specificity is the 'true negative rate' (probability that a healthy person is not misclassified). They are usually in conflict: increasing sensitivity often decreases specificity (more false positives).

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

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Trade-off between false positives and false negatives. When building decision systems (e.g., risk control, recruitment), you must choose a side: would you rather kill a thousand by mistake (high sensitivity) or let one slip through (high specificity)? There is no perfect metric.

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Two core metrics of binary classification tests: sensitivity = true positive rate (diseased individuals correctly detected), specificity = true negative rate (non-diseased individuals correctly excluded); they often trade off, and positive predictive value should be interpreted in light of prevalence.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensitivity_and_specificityZH · Explicit
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