MENTAL MODEL · M1370

Defense Attorney's Fallacy

StructureHigh supportLogic

Included

Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

If evidence (such as a DNA match) indicates that the defendant is highly likely guilty (with only a one-in-a-million error rate), the defense attorney will emphasize that 'in a large population, there are many people with a one-in-a-million error rate,' thereby misleading the jury to ignore the strong implicative power of the evidence.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

Correctly evaluate probabilistic evidence. It exploits people's misunderstanding of conditional probability. When analyzing data, be wary of this sophistry that dilutes the effectiveness of specific evidence by expanding the sample space.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

This fallacy confuses 'the probability of an event occurring in the population' with 'the probability under known specific evidence conditions,' i.e., it reverses the direction of conditional probability (inverse fallacy).

MINIMUM ACTION

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Practice this model in one real situation:

Clarify the posterior probability indicated by the evidence (e.g., the probability of the defendant's guilt given a DNA match)
Identify whether the other party is using the population base rate to dilute the evidence's effectiveness
Use Bayesian thinking to correct misjudgments.

Check to track your progress (stored locally)

Learning progress0%

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Source support: Explicit

link
en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacyZH · Explicit
verified

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