Cognitive Scaffold

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MENTAL MODEL · M1368

Trough of Disillusionment

Trough of Disillusionment
TechnicalHigh supportArtificial Intelligence
Included
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

After a technology has been hyped during the 'Peak of Inflated Expectations', due to difficulties in practical implementation and frequent bugs, people's interest in the technology plummets, investment withdraws, and the media turns negative. This is a critical period for the technology's death or rebirth.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

Bottom-fishing opportunity. When everyone is criticizing AI or blockchain (Trough of Disillusionment), it is often the time when the technology begins to truly solve problems and create value. Entering at this time means minimal competition and maximum returns.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

The Trough of Disillusionment is a stage in the Gartner Hype Cycle: after a technology reaches the Peak of Inflated Expectations, due to underperformance and bubble burst, public interest falls to the bottom. It is an inevitable trough where 'hype recedes and value is reassessed'.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

  • link
    wiki.mbalib.comhttps://wiki.mbalib.com/wiki/%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E6%9B%B2%E7%BA%BFZH · Explicit
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