MENTAL MODEL · M0358

The Secretary Problem / Optimal Stopping

DecideHigh supportDecision Science

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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

When facing candidates that appear sequentially, first observe the first approximately 37% as a sample, then immediately select the first one better than the sample, approaching the optimal stopping point under uncertainty.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

Look at the first 37% and then choose the best, approaching optimal stopping.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

In a sequence where you decide as you go and cannot return to rejected options, the optimal strategy is to first observe the first approximately 37% (1/e) as a sample without selecting, then immediately select the first candidate better than the sample, maximizing the probability of choosing the best in expectation.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Practice this model in one real situation:

First, determine the total number of candidates and the constraint of no return. Second, use the first 37% to establish a baseline (observe only, no selection). Third, thereafter, immediately decide when encountering a candidate better than the baseline. Fourth, accept the risk of 'missing out' to avoid endless waiting.

Check to track your progress (stored locally)

Learning progress0%

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Source support: Explicit

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zh.wikipedia.orghttps://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%A7%98%E6%9B%B8%E5%95%8F%E9%A1%8CZH · Explicit
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