Scenario Planning
Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30
CORE DEFINITION
Popularized by Shell. It does not predict "what the future will be," but rather explores "if the future is A, what do we do? If it is B, what then?" Typically, 2-4 vastly different future scenarios are constructed. Scaffolding role: - Antifragility: not putting all eggs in the basket of a single prediction. - Mental rehearsal: allowing decision-makers to experience crises in their minds in advance, so when a black swan actually occurs, they can react much faster than competitors (Shell successfully navigated the 1970s oil crisis this way).
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Antifragility: not putting all eggs in the basket of a single prediction. - Mental rehearsal: allowing decision-makers to experience crises in their minds in advance, so when a black swan actually occurs, they can react much faster than competitors (Shell successfully navigated the 1970s oil crisis this way).
Anchor fast decisions
Developed by Shell and Kahn: replacing single-point forecasts with several structured scenarios to enhance resilience to an uncertain future. The mechanism is to substitute "multiple possibilities" for "one expectation."
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planningverified
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