MENTAL MODEL · M0286

Problem of Induction

StructureHigh supportLogic

Included

Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-28

CORE DEFINITION

The problem of induction is a philosophical problem that questions the rationality of predictions about unobserved things based on previous observations. These inferences from the observed to the unobserved are known as "inductive inferences". David Hume, who first formulated the problem in 1739, argued that there is no non-circular way to justify inductive inferences, while he acknowledged that e

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

Hume pointed out that our habit of believing that "the future will resemble the past" cannot be justified by reason, but only stems from psychological habit. Inductive reasoning presupposes the uniformity of nature, but this presupposition itself cannot be proven by induction (otherwise it would be circular), so the rationality of induction has a fundamental epistemological gap.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Practice this model in one real situation:

Identify the assumption that "the future will resemble the past" on which an inductive claim relies
question the basis of that assumption
expose its inability to be rationally justified
and accordingly maintain moderate skepticism about inductive conclusions in decision-making.

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Source support: Explicit

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en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Problem_of_inductionZH · Explicit
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