Demographic Transition

CORE DEFINITION

Demographic transition refers to the phenomenon in which a country or region transitions from a pre-industrial economic system to an industrialized economic system, often accompanied by a transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates. This theory was proposed by American demographer Warren Thompson in 1929, who observed and studied the changes or transitions in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two centuries. Most developed countries have completed the demographic transition and have low birth rates; while most developing countries are in the process of this transition. The main (relatively) exceptions are some poor countries, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa and some Middle Eastern countries, which are in poverty or affected by government policies or civil unrest, especially Pakistan, Palestinian territories, Yemen, and Afghanistan. In isolation, the demographic transition model can predict that as societies become wealthier, birth rates will continue to decline; however, recent data contradict this. Data show that when a country exceeds a certain level of development, its birth rate will rise again.