MENTAL MODEL · M13308

Underdetermination of Scientific Theory

TechnicalHigh supportScientific Methodology

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Updated 2026-09-10

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INTRODUCTION

English translation pending.

CORE DEFINITION

The core idea of underdetermination is that the evidence available at a given time may be insufficient to determine what we should believe on its basis; in other words, the relation between evidence and theory is not one-to-one. Duhem's holism is a classic source of the thesis. Its weak form concerns a temporary shortfall of evidence, while its strong form claims genuine empirical equivalence between rival theories.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

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- Rival construction: actively construct conflicting theories that account for the same body of evidence. - Evidence assessment: ask whether new evidence can really discriminate between two empirically equivalent theories. - Basis of choice: when evidence runs out, appeal to non-evidential standards such as simplicity.

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Underdetermination holds because inference from evidence to theory is not deductive: the same set of observations can be equally well accommodated by several conflicting theories. It comes in strengths, for the weak version says only that current evidence is insufficient, while the strong version claims that empirically equivalent yet irreconcilable theories exist and no further evidence can help.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Practice this model in one real situation:

List all candidate theories that could explain the same body of evidence. 2. Ask whether this is a temporary evidential shortfall or an empirical equivalence in principle. 3. If the latter, make the non-evidential standards you invoke, such as simplicity or consistency, explicit. 4. Explain where those standards get their justification.

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Source support: Explicit

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plato.stanford.eduhttps://plato.stanford.edu/entries/scientific-underdetermination/ZH · Explicit
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