MENTAL MODEL · M13274

Pascal’s Wager

DecideHigh supportDecision Science

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Updated 2026-09-10

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INTRODUCTION

English translation pending.

CORE DEFINITION

Pascal's Wager is the name for the arguments Pascal offered for believing in God, or at least for taking steps toward belief. Traditionally it denotes the third of four similar arguments in the Pensees, and it draws together threads from theology, probability and decision theory, pragmatism, voluntarism, and the concept of the infinite.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

- Frame extreme decisions: use an expected value frame when the stakes are vast and the choice is irreversible. - Audit the assumptions: check whether the conclusion still holds if the reward is treated as finite rather than as infinite.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

The mechanism is an expected-value calculation: multiply the two acts, believing and not believing, against the two states, God exists and God does not. As long as the reward is set at infinity and the probability is not zero, no finite cost can compete with it. Drop the infinite and the conclusion stops holding, which is why later writers kept revising it.

MINIMUM ACTION

In progress 0/1

Practice this model in one real situation:

Write out the payoff matrix of acts against states. 2. Check whether the reward should really be treated as infinite. 3. Ask whether an arbitrarily small probability can be reliably assigned. 4. Test the premise that belief is a matter of will. 5. Check how sensitive the conclusion is to the choice of decision rule.

Check to track your progress (stored locally)

Learning progress0%

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Source support: Explicit

link
plato.stanford.eduhttps://plato.stanford.edu/entries/pascal-wager/ZH · Explicit
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