Decision Theory
Updated 2026-09-10
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
Decision theory studies the reasoning behind an agent's choices, whether ordinary ones such as taking the bus or a taxi, or consequential ones such as whether a powerful figure should push for major social change. The standard view holds that an agent's choice is entirely determined by her beliefs and desires or values, though this claim is contested. Savage's representation theorem is the canonical formal result.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Break down structure: separate options, states, outcomes, probabilities, and utilities before comparing. - Separate elements: clarify what I think will happen apart from how much I want it. - Locate conflict: when torn, decide whether the disagreement is about probabilities or about value rankings.
Anchor fast decisions
Decision theory reduces choice to a preference structure: if preferences satisfy axioms such as transitivity and independence, there exist a utility function and a probability function making choice equivalent to expected utility maximization, which is the representation theorem. Rationality is thus formalized as internal consistency; when an axiom fails, the maximizing representation collapses and a non-expected utility model is needed.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- plato.stanford.eduhttps://plato.stanford.edu/entries/decision-theory/verified
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