Counterfactual Reasoning
Updated 2026-09-11
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
Counterfactual reasoning constructs a space of parallel possibilities before a decision is taken. It belongs to the same family as the premortem: convene the stakeholders, assume the project has already failed, and have each person list the most likely causes of that failure. The purpose is to derive risk from an imagined result rather than to wait for hindsight, which arrives too late to help.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Assume failure: state in advance that the effort has failed, then ask why. - Collect causes: have each participant name the most probable failure independently. - Trace to prevention: convert each cause into a checkable action before the decision is sealed.
Anchor fast decisions
Hindsight bias makes a failure look predictable only after the fact; counterfactual reasoning moves that hindsight forward. When people reason about an event as already settled, they switch from defensive optimism to diagnostic search, and the causes they generate are more specific than those from ordinary risk listing. This converts invisible blind spots into checkable items while correction is still cheap.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterfactual_thinkingverified
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