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MENTAL MODEL · M10594

Model Predictive Control, MPC

Model Predictive Control, MPC
DecideHigh supportDecision Science
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Updated 2026-08-13

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INTRODUCTION

English translation pending.

CORE DEFINITION

Model predictive control uses a model of the system to predict its behaviour over a finite future horizon, solves an optimization problem that minimizes a cost subject to constraints, applies only the first control move, and then repeats the whole computation at the next time step. The core proposition is that rolling re-optimization with feedback handles constraints and disturbances better than a fixed open-loop plan. The key qualification is that longer horizons accumulate model error and require more computation, and the optimizer must finish within the control interval to be usable.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

- Horizon choice: pick a prediction horizon long enough to see the consequences but short enough to compute. - Constraint list: state the hard limits the solution must respect before optimizing anything. - First-step rule: commit only the first move, then re-plan with fresh measurements.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

Optimizing over a finite horizon produces a plan that respects the constraints, but only the first step is executed because later steps rest on predictions that will be stale. Re-solving with updated measurements corrects for the model error that has accumulated. The feedback loop is what gives the method robustness, since each cycle replaces prediction with observation.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_predictive_controlZH · Explicit
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