Optimal Stopping Theory
Updated 2026-08-13
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
The theory concerns decisions where options appear in sequence and a passed option cannot be recovered, so the question is when to stop looking and choose. Its classic instance, the secretary problem, asks how to select the best of n candidates interviewed in random order with no rejections recalled. The solution observes the first 37 percent to establish a benchmark, then hires the first candidate who beats it, and this rule is optimal under the stated assumptions. It applies wherever searching has a cost and options are irrevocable.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Set a sample phase: observe a fixed share of the options without committing to any. - Benchmark from it: record the best result the sample produced as your reference. - Commit after: take the first later option that clearly exceeds the benchmark.
Anchor fast decisions
Early options cannot be judged against a standard that does not yet exist, so the first segment of the sequence is sacrificed to build one. Once the benchmark is set, the expected value of stopping at the first option above it exceeds the value of continued search, because the probability of meeting a better option falls faster than the gain from finding it. The 37 percent split balances the cost of sampling against the risk of passing the best.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimal_stoppingverified
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