Cognitive Scaffold

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MENTAL MODEL · M7019

Three Horizons Framework

Three Horizons Framework
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Updated 2026-08-10

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INTRODUCTION

English translation pending.

CORE DEFINITION

A growth planning framework associated with McKinsey that separates activity into three horizons: the current core business to be maintained and optimized, emerging businesses being scaled toward growth, and future options still being explored and tested. Its core proposition is that organizations must invest across all three at once, since exclusive focus on the present forfeits the future and exclusive focus on the future starves the present. The qualifier is that each horizon requires different metrics.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

- Horizon sort: assign every initiative to core, emerging, or future before allocating anything. - Metric match: use different measures for each horizon rather than one uniform target. - Portfolio balance: check that resources reach all three instead of collapsing into the present.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

Core businesses decay as markets mature, so returns must be reinvested into options before the decline becomes visible. Options mature slowly and cannot be accelerated at will, which means the future portfolio must be seeded years ahead of need. Running all three concurrently keeps near-term cash and long-term viability from competing for the same slot.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_HorizonsZH · Explicit
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