Pascal's Wager
Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30
CORE DEFINITION
Even if the probability of God's existence is low, believing in God (low cost, infinite expected benefit/heaven) is more rational than not believing (finite benefit, infinite expected risk/hell).
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
A game of asymmetric risk. When facing things with 'extremely low probability but infinite consequences' (such as buying insurance, wearing a seatbelt, compliance in entrepreneurship), do not look at probability but at expected value. Some bets, though with low odds, are worth taking; some risks, though with low probability, must never be taken.
Anchor fast decisions
Pascal's Wager: Under uncertainty about God's existence, if you believe and God exists, you gain infinite benefit; if not, you lose a finite amount. If you do not believe and God exists, you suffer infinite loss. Therefore, rationally 'betting' on belief is better. It is a decision argument that uses expected benefit to justify faith.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/3Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s_wagerverified
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