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MENTAL MODEL · M5809

Adaptive Expectations

Adaptive Expectations
BusinessHigh supportEconomics
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-28

CORE DEFINITION

Adaptive expectations is an economic hypothesis that people form expectations about the future based on past (historical) data. For example, if inflation has been high in the past, people will expect it to remain high in the future. Another theory about how expectations are formed is rational expectations. Although many macroeconomists view rational expectations as a revolutionary improvement of the 1970s and 1980s, some critics still argue for a return to adaptive expectations models.

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Adaptive expectations is an economic hypothesis that people form expectations about the future based on past (historical) data. For example, if inflation has been high in the past, people will expect it to remain high in the future. Another theory about how expectations are formed is rational expectations. Although many macroeconomists view rational expectations as a revolutionary improvement of the 1970s and 1980s, some critics still argue for a return to adaptive expectations models.

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Economic agents gradually adjust their expectations of future variables based on past experience, rather than being fully rational.

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Source support: Explicit

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    zh.wikipedia.orghttps://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%80%82%E5%BA%94%E6%80%A7%E9%A2%84%E6%9C%9FZH · Explicit
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