Maximin Principle
Updated 2026-08-04
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
A decision rule from game theory and statistics, sometimes called the pessimistic criterion and associated with Abraham Wald. For each option, identify its worst possible outcome, then select the option whose worst outcome is least bad. In John Rawls's theory of justice, the same structure justifies designing social institutions so that the position of the worst-off group is maximized. The rule is appropriate when outcomes are catastrophic and probabilities are unknown or unreliable, and it is costly when the downside is survivable, because it forgoes substantial expected gains.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Floor first: identify the worst case of each option before comparing expected returns. - Survival filter: eliminate any option whose worst case is unrecoverable, regardless of upside. - Rule justification: justify institutions by how they treat the worst-off position rather than by aggregate gain.
Anchor fast decisions
Expected value averages across outcomes, so a rare catastrophic branch can be offset by many favorable ones on paper. When the catastrophic branch is genuinely unrecoverable, averaging is inappropriate, because no later gain can compensate for elimination. Maximin substitutes a comparison of floors for a comparison of averages, which guarantees survival at the cost of expected performance. That trade is rational exactly when the loss is absorbing and the probabilities cannot be trusted.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimaxverified
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